What To Expect From Bitcoin After The Crash

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Why Did Bitcoin Crash?

Speculating over why Bitcoin crashed serves no purpose.

Because we can never truly know and use that information in the future.

People will claim to be experts now and give you all sorts of reasons, but nobody seemed to talk about any of those “reasons” a week ago when Bitcoin was at $99k.

If you told anyone last week that Bitcoin will drop all the way down to $78k this soon they would have called you a madman.

In any case….

What we can tell you is:

Bitcoin is doing what Bitcoin is doing.

There’s nothing really out of the ordinary here.

Sure: tariffs, liquidations, trying to catch a falling knife and longing too soon…

But really…

Just look at this M2 chart.

We’ve talked repeatedly about the Bitcoin-M2 lagged relationship.

But it’s actually insane when you look at it.

M2 leads Bitcoin price by around 77 to 100 days.

The top in M2 coincided exactly with the top in Bitcoin back in December.

That’s actually something we talked about before Bitcoin topped. We said it was a real possibility.

If that’s not enough…

Bitcoin’s double top structure has followed M2’s.

And now Bitcoin has fulfilled the crash that happened in M2 almost 90 days ago.

We were always aware of this relationship but didn’t expect the correlation to be 100% as robust as this.

And also, correlation in timing is different to correlation in magnitude.

Meaning if Bitcoin just dropped to $90k, that would have also fulfilled the correlation.

What To Expect Now?

Basically, oh wait…

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What To Actually Expect Now?

Basically something like this:

We will go up to the 90s first then have another retest of the low 80s again.

We will consolidate for about 30-40 days after that before we start moving higher again.

All of this is based on M2’s behavior.

Who knows, this time could actually be different and the correlation between Bitcoin and M2 breaks.

Usually, whenever you think “this time is different”, it’s not.

I firmly believe we are in the middle of something like this in 2021.

Which means consolidation and retest of the lows for the next 2 months before actually going higher and making a double top.

This may very likely mean that Bitcoin doesn’t go further than $120k this cycle.

That’s only bad news if you attach a time expectation to things.

Bitcoin will go to $1 million per coin in the next 10 years and along the way we will have many bull runs.

Just let Bitcoin do its thing.