How Singaporean Iron Ore Can Predict Bitcoin Price

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Market Overview:

We’re going to keep this one nice and short.

If you’re not following us on X, you’re missing out on real-time ALPHA signals.

We sent out this tweet when Bitcoin was at $61k.

Then it went down to $57k.

We didn’t use technical analysis.

We didn’t draw squiggly lines on charts.

We came to that conclusion by studying Singaporean Iron Ore Futures.

Sounds exotic and weird but it’s really interesting.

We’ll be delving deep into that. Upgrade here.

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Macro Summary

We’ll keep this section straight to the point.

1. The Fed’s TGA has gone down but it’s likely to go back up a bit (which is a liquidity drain).

2. The Fed’s RRP is likely to also go up (which is a liquidity drain).

Meaning:

It is expected that Fed liquidity will drop this week, which will reflect in weaker asset prices.

Don’t confuse this with the long-term Global Liquidity cycle where we’re on the precipice of a massive run.

Remember that the Fed’s reserve liquidity is on the brink of falling below the adequate threshold required to prevent a banking crisis. So, surprise liquidity injections are on the table.

Practical Indicators:

1. We’ll start with the Singaporean Iron Ore Futures and how it forewarned us of a potential decline in Bitcoin when it was near $62k.

We noticed that during periods where Bitcoin is not trending, so just mean reverting, Bitcoin becomes correlated with Iron Ore futures (Ticker: FEFN), as you can see below.

The correlation is leading, not coincident. Meaning FEFN leads Bitcoin price.

We looked at the FEFN chart and saw how it almost round-tripped its recovery. So we came to the conclusion that Bitcoin is likely to do the same.

Bitcoin recovered from the close of $54k, reaching as high as $62k and we knew it had to pullback.

We placed the floor of the reversal at $56k based on FEFN’s price action.

Regarding what it’s doing now… This is the most recent chart of FEFN and it shows that it’s still going down.

Our extrapolation analysis puts the floor of Bitcoin price around $54-$55k.

Meaning that’s the most it can go down. It may or may not go down this far.

Of course this is subject to revision and other external factors.

Also remember that once Bitcoin gets a positive surprise catalyst and enters into a trending phase, FEFN will lose its “predictive” powers.

But as long as Bitcoin is in a range, we think we can reliably use the FEFN in our analysis.

2. Remember this ticker that we showed you last week and how it went down to levels not seen since May 2023?

Now it had a massive positive pump.

Very high rate of change as you can see.

This is a positive development and could signal further liquidity coming.

3. This one is just to keep in the records.

Last week we showed you Bitcoin’s price with the Global Liquidity Index indicator (in brown) overlayed on top of it and how there was an uptick in this indicator.

This uptick resolved itself in… you guessed it, an uptick in Bitcoin. Bitcoin went up 12% in one day! See here.

We hope that’s enough Alpha to satisfy you for one day. We have many “predictive” tickers on TradingView at our disposal and we’re always on the search for more.

Optimal Holdings:

Our actual portfolio now:

1. 45% Ethereum (ETH).

2. 45% Bitcoin (BTC).

3. 5% Solana (SOL)

4. 1% $WIF, $DOG, $MOG.

5. 4% Cash.

We’re only holding 1% in these memecoins because they were bought at earlier parts of the cycle and will be held long-term. We don’t advise to buy now, though.

An update on the VXX:

It’s back down again, as predicted. It’s down 40%.

Which means the BTC/VXX chart has gone UP almost 80%.

The BTC/VXX trade still remains the highest alpha trade that nobody talks about.

What Should You Do Now?

• If you’re fully allocated, no need to do anything now. The time to do nothing is now.

• If you’re not fully allocated, and want exposure, either spread your purchases over 6 weeks or just wait for a positive trend condition.

• For any leverage/alts you want to buy, best to just wait.