Is Bitcoin Bearish Now?

Market Overview:

April is historically the second best month for Bitcoin, next to October.

However, this April is likely to be different. Bitcoin has officially entered in the non-bullish (not bearish) phase that we have been warning about for weeks.

• The Dollar is going up.

• China is aborting any monetary stimulations for the time being.

• Stealth Quantitative Tightening (QT) has likely begun.

• Long-term holders are selling.

We will not outright express a bearish thesis, because that would entail giving the signal to sell to buy back lower.

However, this is a market environment that is unpredictable and the only way to weather the storm is to sit with spot and do nothing.

• We are still fully long in our holdings because trying to trade this environment will prove to be brutal. We are long-term investors.

As stated last week, we expect a long period of consolidation over the coming month, with a downward bias.

REMINDER: consolidation on higher timeframes also includes going back up to ATHs and then back down. So going up to $75K or even to $80K would not be surprising.

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