Important Bull Market Updates

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Market Overview

Bitcoin briefly went back above $100k again…

…and with it price was sent into a technical uptrend again.

But…

That doesn’t mean price is trending.

In fact, price is still in a mean reverting state.

Which means Bitcoin is in a range.

That will remain true until Bitcoin closes and stays above $104k.

Which I expect will 100% happen, just don’t know when. It’s a matter of time.

Today is likely to be red day, given we’ve had 7 straight green candles in a row.

Which actually doesn’t mean much. Remember January 2023?

(This was written before Bitcoin’s -4% decline but decided to keep it since it’s a nice call.)

Some positive news:

The DXY (US Dollar index) is STILL remarkably and eerily following the path of 2016-2017 post Trump’s victory.

We talked about that subject on November 26th and now the DXY appears to have topped on the EXACT SAME day it topped in 2017.

The DXY going down is bullish for crypto GENERALLY. But it does NOT mean Bitcoin will go up BECAUSE of the DXY.

The DXY was in a free falling crash from June to September 2024, and we all know Bitcoin went nowhere during this period.

But if you couple a falling DXY with a positive, welcoming crypto environment that will come to effect in earnest on January 20th, this could be nice effect.

General Investing Advice

You need to remember there is no one magical economic metric that can consistently and reliably tell you what’s going to happen.

For example, from March 2024 till September 2024, Fed Net Liquidity was an unusually reliable metric in PREDICTING and leading Bitcoin’s price.

Before every Bitcoin “crash” in the summer, Fed Liquidity had crashed just a couple of days prior.

Now? Fed liquidity has crashed to a level not seen since 2023 yet price did not care.

The key here is to know when to use which metric and not be blindsided by things.

BTW

This is just me casually drawing a path of Bitcoin’s price on December 26th and nailing literally every candle.

Here’s the proof I drew it back then:

Was this “skill”? Am I predictor of things? No.

It was luck, but it’s a byproduct of years of experience and time in the market.

After many years of analysis, you reach a stage where your expectations of market price match reality more often.

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